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Two days remaining.

England's first Test in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we look at where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It’s challenging to make runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.

A lot of the build-up has focused on the apparent difficulty of scoring runs, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to score runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

Aside from Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have performed well.

Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home Test without both key bowlers, and lost, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, results have not been affected – The tourists should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a reason in Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who famously struck the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australia.

His average rises when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, most likely back at three.

Across seven matches in 2025, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning Lyon has less space to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a depressing habit of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have not won since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the tour are the same, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

Perth stages an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the tourists approach with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia played a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have won four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Each match at the new ground has been won by the team batting first.

The English often overthink day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

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